environment,energy,greenhouse,gas,carbon,dioxide,global,nuclear energy,clean energy,emissions,global climate change,environmental impacts, Nuclear Energy Can Save US: A China/India Scenario

Nuclear Energy Can Save US--America�s 100 nukes equal four million barrels of oil per day.

Billions of lives and civilization itself may be at risk from the Global Warming & End of Cheap Oil, Crisis. Rising sea levels and rising oil prices could be the end of civilization as we know it. The problem is so huge that the most powerful answer, many nuclear plants, must be deployed. Currently, America‘s 100 nukes deliver the energy of four million barrels of oil per day. Wind and solar cannot do the job, and may delay the real answer too long. Still, all kinds of clean energy, plus conservation, plus reducing deforestation, will be needed to help the poor half of the world, and for civilization to survive through this century.

Monday, July 30, 2007

A China/India Scenario

Between them, China and India, have about one-third of the Earth�s population. Their economies are growing strongly, and they are, thankfully, both moving heavily into the generation of nuclear energy. The world can hope that this one-third of humanity will be living in sustainable economies during this century.
China plans to have 40 nuclear plants by 2030; and many people speculate that they will have 300 by the end of the century. ElBaradei, Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEC), said in 2005, that India�s nuclear capacity will grow 10-fold by 2022, and 100-fold by mid-century.
If, between these two countries, 600 nuclear plants are built this century; it is reasonable to think that they will be built for about $1.7B each (current dollars). This is based on a Chinese government statement that they plan to build 30 plants for a total of $50B; a standardized design most likely.
Since there are moving targets involved, I speculate that by the halfway point, say 300 nukes total by 2060 or so, the average price of the plants will have increased to $4B, and the average price of oil will have grown to $200 per barrel (conservative estimate).
300 nukes times $4B = $1.2T ($1,200,000,000). 300 nukes = 12MBPD or 4.4BBPY of oil, worth $0.9T ($900,000,000) every year, at $200 per barrel. 600 nukes by century�s-end would be proportionally even more valuable, if this estimate is near correct. This is not to say that nuclear would be enough; wind, solar, biofuel, and conservation will all be needed. Fossil fuels will also still be burned for energy. Earth�s need for energy is enormous.
Clean energy from wind, equivalent to 600 nukes would require 1,200,000, 2000kw turbines. I also wish that these countries could find locations for, and build this number of wind turbines, but

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